Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
